2012 GOP primary pool
Handicapping the 2012 race
The game: Both JAS and PFS ante $100, to be spent bidding on 2012 GOP primary candidates. JAS and PFS take turns putting candidates up for auction. Both players then bid, and the player with the higher bids "gets" that candidate at the midpoint of the two bids. The game lasts 20 rounds, and the entire $200 goes into the pot, whether it has been spent on bids or not.
The scoring: Candidates earn points upon reaching certain milestones related to the 2012 GOP primary:
- 5 points for announcing candidacy
- 10 points for participating in at least one televised debate
- 10 points for receiving at least one delegate
- 5 points for winning at least one primary/caucus
- 5 points for winning the Iowa caucus
- 5 points for winning the New Hampshire primaries
- 5 points if the candidate is still active and viable on March 1
- 5 points if the candidate is still active and viable on April 1
- 53 points for winning the GOP presidential nomination
- 26 points for winning the GOP VP nomination
- 15 points for winning the Southern Republican Leadership Conference straw poll in March 2010
- 7 points for making the most references to Ronald Reagan during the first televised debate
- 7 points for making the most references to Ronald Reagan during the final debate prior to Super Tuesday
- 7 points for being the first candidate to use the word "socialism" or a variant in a televised debate
- 10 points for having the most support among evangelicals in the final Iowa Gallup poll prior to the Iowa caucus
- 5 points for announcing withdrawal from campaign at the 2012 CPAC conference
If JAS earns A points and PFS B points, JAS earns $200*A/(A+B), while PFS earns $200*B/(A+B).
The draft: Below are the results of the draft, held on 6/10/2009:
| Price | JAS | PFS |
Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| $3.63 |
Lindsay Graham |
John Thune |
$5.58 |
| $3.52 |
Mike Pence |
Sam Brownback |
$.75 |
| $37.68 |
Mitt Romney |
Haley Barbour |
$6.35 |
$19.28 |
Mike Huckabee |
Gary Johnson |
$3.10 |
| $7.17 |
Ron Paul |
Sarah Palin |
$26.76 |
| $1.23 |
John Ensign |
Tim Pawlenty |
$15.46 |
$1.03 |
Fred Thompson |
David Petraeus |
$2.93 |
$9.29 |
Mark Sanford |
Bobby Jindal |
$10.26 |
$2.11 |
Paul Ryan |
Rob Portman |
$.75 |
$1.37 |
Rudy Giuliani |
John Huntsman |
$2.35 |
| $.50 |
George Allen |
Tom Tancredo |
$.90 |
| $8.43 |
Newt Gingrich |
John Kasich |
$1.03 |
| $1.63 |
Jeb Bush |
Rick Perry |
$4.34 |
| $1.42 |
Dirk Kempthorne |
Sonny Perdue |
$.50 |
| $1.47 |
George Ryan |
Charlie Crist |
$4.33 |
| Dick Cheney |
$.50 |
||
| Mitch Daniels |
$1.58 |
||
| Eric Cantor |
$2.32 |
||
| John Engler |
$.51 |
||
| John Kyl |
$1.64 |
||
| Jodi Rell |
$.73 |
||
| Richard Burr |
$.73 |
||
| Mike Johanns |
$1.23 |
||
| Bob Corker |
$1.22 |
||
| Jim DeMint |
$2.19 |